Objective 1: Prioritising MPA features at highest risk from climate change and associated biotopes:
· Literature search: to create a prioritised list of MPA features considered most at risk to climate change, JNCC undertook a rapid literature review to identify marine habitats and species likely to be impacted by climate change pressures. Outputs from the literature search were then correlated with the associated MPA features and biotopes.
· Selection of pressures for sensitivity assessment: To streamline the number of sensitivity assessments to be undertaken under Objective 3, the climate change pressures used for the literature search were further prioritised to identify five of the pressures considered most likely to have an effect on habitats within UK waters.
· Identification of MPA features and biotopes at-risk to climate pressures: To finalise a list of MPA features and their associated biotopes at highest risk to climate change pressures, the outputs from the literature search were refined to consider receptors affected by only the five prioritised pressures. Receptors were then correlated to MPA features and biotopes based on whether they were habitats or species.
Objective 2: Identifying MPA features with a role in climate change adaptation/ mitigation:
· Literature search: To identify which MPA features have a role in climate change adaptation or mitigation, JNCC undertook a rapid literature assessment to investigate the provision of climate change related ecosystem services by MPA protected features.
· Assigning provision and confidence scores: Based on the literature assessment outputs, each feature was assigned a provision and confidence score of low/moderate/high, alongside an assessment of whether they could provide climate change related services
· Combining with MPA data: The outputs of the literature assessment were used to develop statistics on the climate related ecosystem services. The UK MPA stocktake data for SoS waters was used to determine the
· representation of MPA protected features. This was used to assess whether the MPA provided one of the climate change related services.
· Calculating the statistics: Statistics on the role of the UK MPA network in SoS waters in providing climate related ecosystem services were calculated by totalling the MPAs that protect features known to provide coastal protection or carbon sequestration services.
Objective 3: Devising definitions and benchmarks for climate change pressures and complete sensitivity assessments for priority biotopes:
· Developing pressures and benchmarks: Five pressures were selected to undertake sensitivity assessments against. Through a sub-contract for the project, the Marine Biological Association undertook a review of literature for these pressures, in order to propose a set of benchmarks based on best available evidence. These proposals were sent out for expert consultation to a range of academic and research institutions, and updates were made following this consultation. A multiple benchmark approach was agreed, with each pressure benchmark set at mean projected values for both middle and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and an additional extreme scenario for ocean warming and sea level rise.
· Sensitivity assessments: Following the Marine Evidence-based Sensitivity Assessment (MarESA) method, a literature review was undertaken on the resistance (tolerance) and resilience (recovery rates) for the key functional, structural and characterising species of the biotopes. The resulting evidence base was used to assess and score resistance, resilience and hence, sensitivity, of each biotope to the climate change pressures at the different emission scenario benchmarks.
· Sensitivity maps: To display the sensitivity assessment scores in a more visual way, sensitivity maps were created for the two-case study MPAs. Maps were created for each climate change pressure, displaying the HES benchmark sensitivity scores.
Objective 4: MPA climate profiles:
· Creation of climate profiles: Climate profiles were created for the two-case study MPAs; Studland Bay MCZ and The Canyons MCZ, as examples of how information on MPAs and climate change could be communicated at a site level. The climate profiles provided summary information about the MPA, information on its provision of climate change related ecosystem services, the potential response of these features to climate change; and conclusions from this evidence and knowledge gaps to be addressed by further research.